I’m going to say it, WE’VE REACHED THE BOTTOM! I’ve been thinking it since the first of the year but now I really believe that in 6 months the media will be saying it too. I’ve been waiting because I didn’t want to sound like somone with their head in the clouds. Some guy who says the market is on the verge of a turn around (turn around being a little subjective, I believe stabilization to be a turn around at this point) every 4 or 5 months just to have to eat crow and start all over again.

Looking at the number of foreclosures and short-sales (and the sellers who qualify for a short-sale) in our market leads me to believe that the end of the malaise is near.

Of course, by then all of the truly exceptional deals on property will have been snatched up by investors. That’s OK because I’m ready for someone to ring the bell and say ‘yep their it was 6 months ago and now we can move on with the rest of the economic recovery.

I have to admit that I’ve been aprehensive about 2009. It’s not as though 2008 gave me that much to look forward to in the way of business, the type of business you can count on, can budget with. 2009 is proving to be much more agreeable though. Beginning the last 3 weeks of December we started seeing marked improvements in our real estate business.

Short-sales, foreclosures and just great deals on some of our rental properties have inspired many buyers to act (along with almost comically low interest rates).

Someone once told me that ‘no one rings a bell when you reach the bottom, you only recognize it when it’s already past by at least 6 months’. I have the distinct feeling we could be hearing a bell soon and I couldn’t be happier.

Happy 2009!

Being in the real estate business is an exercize in constant change. Even in the boom periods we are always adapting to new technology, new customer demands, and the ever changing regulations that guide us.

I get bored easily so the persistent need to change hasn’t bothered me. I remember our first web site back in the 1990’s and training my agents to use email and send attachments some time after. It seems that the advent of the IDX web site came quickly with some local brokers skeptical but it was an exciting time for me.

I wonder what the next change will be. I wonder if we have reached a point where great innovation has stopped and we’re just going to experience fine tuning of the internet tools and services we use? Will the downturn in real estate sales produce some sort of new market or marketing technique?

I think about what an instructor from a class I attended several years ago said, ‘The real estate business is and always will be one agent working with a buyer to find the right house, it’s a face to face business.’ Has the internet really changed that? Sure, people start their search online but when it comes time to look at the houses, write an offer, and negotiate they still look to us (the people who have spent thousands of dollars and hours educating ourselves) to help them navigate the waters and find their way. I guess, even thought I like change, I can take some comfort in the fact that we’re still needed.

Short sales are not the best way to transfer property but lately it’s become the method of choice for some buyers and distressed sellers. Many of our customers are confused about short sales (we joking call them long sales in our office because a few banks can take weeks to make a decision) and shy away from them. I, however, feel short sales represent a much more attractive option for buyers and sellers. I’ll list a few reasons why I feel this way:

• For rental properties, which is most of our market here, the homes are still furnished and have not been damaged by the removal of furniture, appliances and sometimes pool tables and hot tubs.
• The rental stream has not been interrupted by the foreclosure process so future bookings still exist.
• The seller doesn’t have a foreclosure to contend with on their credit.
•  Often the buyer gets the property at or below what the bank would later list it at. It’s true that banks do not want property…. they want money.

While it is unfortunate that some owners of property find themselves in a tough spot, I’m glad we can be there to help them stave off foreclosure with the tools that are made available.